How did bonds perform during the market volatility of Q1 2020?

It’s important when going through any period of volatility in markets for investors to consider their portfolio holistically. Are the assets in your portfolio doing what you expect them to do? Bonds aim to provide defence, income and diversification – over the long term, that’s what they have historically done.

And looking at performance for the first quarter of 2020, bonds have delivered returns in line with what clients would expect: over the quarter, Australian bonds were up 2.99%, and global bonds (hedged into AUD) were up 1.27%.1

1. Australian Bonds: Bloomberg AusBond Composite Bond 0+ Index, Global Bonds AUD hedged: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index (hedged to AUD)

So what happened in March?

As the COVID-19 crisis unfolded, March saw extreme and rapid dislocation across markets and featured historically large declines (or drawdowns) for all asset classes. As investors might expect, riskier assets such as stocks saw significant drawdowns, but even high quality assets like government bonds suffered.


Comparing this year’s U.S. stock market declines with the GFC in 2008

One main factor that caused this dynamic was the sheer speed of the sell-off. Compare the speed of the current market sell-off with the GFC, which played out over 12-18 months. This sell-off occurred in 6% of the time it took the 2008 sell-off to unfold. Given the speed of this sell-off, as many global investors panicked and rushed to cash, or looked to liquidate assets to meet their cash flow needs, anything liquid was sold as these assets were the quickest and easiest to sell.

As a result, bonds largely underperformed over the month of March as this liquidity rush drove market pricing. However, as stated above, over a longer time horizon, even over the course of the quarter, bonds still provided a positive return in a challenging return environment.

What does this mean for the future?

Investors focused on the longer term health of their portfolio should not worry overly about short-term moves.

It is easy when markets are turbulent to focus on short-term performance. However, it’s important to remember that investing requires a longer term focus. Investors that remain invested rather than selling down during periods of market volatility should be well positioned to benefit from any stabilization and recovery in the market over the longer term. Bonds, as with all assets, can suffer short-term losses, but over a longer time horizon, they should still deliver the defence, income and diversification that investors expect.

It is ‘time in the market, not timing the market’ that generates solid long-term returns. 

Disclosures

All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision. Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.

This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation.

Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and low interest rate environments increase this risk. Reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Investing in foreign denominated and/or domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Mortgage and asset-backed securities may be sensitive to changes in interest rates, subject to early repayment risk, and their value may fluctuate in response to the market’s perception of issuer creditworthiness; while generally supported by some form of government or private guarantee there is no assurance that private guarantors will meet their obligations. High-yield, lower-rated, securities involve greater risk than higher-rated securities; portfolios that invest in them may be subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risk than portfolios that do not. Management risk is the risk that the investment techniques and risk analyses applied by PIMCO will not produce the desired results, and that certain policies or developments may affect the investment techniques available to PIMCO in connection with managing the strategy. Diversification does not ensure against loss.

There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are suitable for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision.

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